What Explains the Shrinking Gender Gap in Internationalism?

Nina Obermeier
King’s College London

Gender Gap in Internationalism Over Time


Support for European integration


Gender Gap in Internationalism Over Time


Support for immigration


Gender Gap in Internationalism Over Time


Support for free trade


Why Is the Gender Gap in Internationalism Narrowing?



Why Is the Gender Gap in Internationalism Narrowing?



Narrowing of gender gap due to increased linking of anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism as populist radical right (PRR) becomes more prominent

Why Is the Gender Gap in Internationalism Narrowing?



Narrowing of gender gap due to increased linking of anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism as populist radical right (PRR) becomes more prominent


Women react more strongly to linking of anti-internationalism with extremism than men → decreasing gender gap in internationalism

Evidence


  • Cross-national media and survey analysis in 8 Western European countries from 2000 to 2019

Evidence


  • Cross-national media and survey analysis in 8 Western European countries from 2000 to 2019

  • Unexpected event during survey design to estimate effect of Cox’s murder on support for internationalism by gender

Evidence


  • Cross-national media and survey analysis in 8 Western European countries from 2000 to 2019

  • Unexpected event during survey design to estimate effect of Cox’s murder on support for internationalism by gender

  • Survey experiment in France to test potential mechanism

Why Is This Important?


  • Improve our understanding of factors that shape public opinion on internationalism

Why Is This Important?


  • Improve our understanding of factors that shape public opinion on internationalism

  • Changing relationship between gender and PRR parties

Traditional Gender Gap in Support for International Economic Integration


  • International trade (Guisinger 2009; Mansfield and Mutz 2009; Mayda and Rodrik 2005; Scheve and Slaughter 2001)

Traditional Gender Gap in Support for International Economic Integration


  • International trade (Guisinger 2009; Mansfield and Mutz 2009; Mayda and Rodrik 2005; Scheve and Slaughter 2001)

  • European integration (Gabel 1998; Liebert 1999; Nelsen and Guth 2000), but recent reversal (Boomgarden et al. 2011; De Vries 2018)

Traditional Gender Gap in Support for International Economic Integration


  • International trade (Guisinger 2009; Mansfield and Mutz 2009; Mayda and Rodrik 2005; Scheve and Slaughter 2001)

  • European integration (Gabel 1998; Liebert 1999; Nelsen and Guth 2000), but recent reversal (Boomgarden et al. 2011; De Vries 2018)

  • (Some types of) immigration (O’Rourke and Sinnott 2006; Ponce 2017)

Existing Explanations for Gender Gap


Existing Explanations for Gender Gap


  • International trade: concern about economic volatility (Guisinger 2017); trade as competition (Mutz 2021)

Existing Explanations for Gender Gap


  • International trade: concern about economic volatility (Guisinger 2017); trade as competition (Mutz 2021)

  • EU: Lack of knowledge (Nelsen and Guth 2000); responsiveness to gender mainstreaming (De Vries 2018)

Existing Explanations for Gender Gap


  • International trade: concern about economic volatility (Guisinger 2017); trade as competition (Mutz 2021)

  • EU: Lack of knowledge (Nelsen and Guth 2000); responsiveness to gender mainstreaming (De Vries 2018)

  • Immigration: Threat to gender equality (Ponce 2017)

Argument



Differential reaction by gender to linking of anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism as PRR parties become more prominent

🡻

Narrowing of the gender gap on internationalism

Argument



Rising prominence of PRR parties in Western Europe → change in public discourse around anti-internationalism

Argument



Rising prominence of PRR parties in Western Europe → change in public discourse around anti-internationalism

→ PRR parties focus on anti-internationalism as challenger issue (De Vries and Hobolt 2020)

Argument



Rising prominence of PRR parties in Western Europe → change in public discourse around anti-internationalism

→ PRR parties focus on anti-internationalism as challenger issue (De Vries and Hobolt 2020)

→ But much attention also paid to PRR parties’ tendencies toward right-wing extremism

Argument



Rising prominence of PRR parties in Western Europe → change in public discourse around anti-internationalism

→ PRR parties focus on anti-internationalism as challenger issue (De Vries and Hobolt 2020)

→ But much attention also paid to PRR parties’ tendencies toward right-wing extremism

→ Linking of anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism in public discourse

Argument



Rising prominence of PRR parties in Western Europe → change in public discourse around anti-internationalism

→ PRR parties focus on anti-internationalism as challenger issue (De Vries and Hobolt 2020)

→ But much attention also paid to PRR parties’ tendencies toward right-wing extremism

→ Linking of anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism in public discourse

→ Shift toward internationalism among those who reject right-wing extremism

Argument


Role of gender

  • Women are on average more conscious of social norms and value them more (Ratcliff et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2018)

Argument


Role of gender

  • Women are on average more conscious of social norms and value them more (Ratcliff et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2018)

  • Women are on average less comfortable with political extremism (Golebiowska 1999)

Argument


Change in discourse linking anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism

🡻

Internationalism increases more strongly among women than men

Argument


Change in discourse linking anti-internationalism to right-wing extremism

🡻

Internationalism increases more strongly among women than men

🡻

Narrowing of the gender gap

Hypotheses



H1: The effect of closer links between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse on support for internationalism will be stronger among women than among men.


H2: The moderating effect of gender on the relationship between changes in public discourse and support for internationalism will be stronger in countries where PRR parties are the primary political actors promoting anti-internationalism.

Hypotheses



H1: The effect of closer links between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse on support for internationalism will be stronger among women than among men.


H2: The moderating effect of gender on the relationship between changes in public discourse and support for internationalism will be stronger in countries where PRR parties are the primary political actors promoting anti-internationalism.

Study 1: Research Design


Measure of link between Euroskepticism and right-wing extremism in media discourse in 8 Western European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, UK) from 2000 to 2019 (Obermeier 2021)

→ Manual coding of newspaper articles

Study 1: Research Design



“Vox is the Spanish version of the national populism we see in Europe … [Their] enemy includes the European Union, which is perceived as a danger to national interests … [I]n Vox’s political culture one can also find a positive assessment of the dictator Franco, and an image of World War II and the Civil War inherited from the Francoist version of history.” (Thomàs 2019)

Study 1: Research Design


Measure of link between Euroskepticism and right-wing extremism in media discourse in 8 Western European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, UK) from 2000 to 2019 (Obermeier 2021)

→ Manual coding of newspaper articles

→ Supervised machine learning to classify remaining articles

→ Measure represents number of articles linking Euroskepticism to right-wing extremism divided by total number of articles about EU

Study 1: Resesarch Design


  • Merged Euroskepticism-extremism link measure with Eurobarometer survey data; support for EU as outcome variable

Study 1: Resesarch Design


  • Merged Euroskepticism-extremism link measure with Eurobarometer survey data; support for EU as outcome variable

  • Individual level control variables: age, education, left-right self-placement

Study 1: Resesarch Design


  • Merged Euroskepticism-extremism link measure with Eurobarometer survey data; support for EU as outcome variable

  • Individual level control variables: age, education, left-right self-placement

  • Country-year level control variables: unemployment rate, GDP growth, PRR party strength

Study 1: Results


Relationship between discourse and support for EU by gender


Study 2: Research Design


  • Unexpected event during survey design: murder of UK MP Jo Cox in June 2016

Study 2: Research Design


  • Unexpected event during survey design: murder of UK MP Jo Cox in June 2016

  • Unexpected shock that concentrated association between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse

Study 2: Research Design

headlines_1

Study 2: Research Design

headlines_2

Study 2: Research Design

headlines_3

Study 2: Research Design


  • Unexpected event during survey design: murder of UK MP Jo Cox in June 2016

  • Unexpected shock that concentrated association between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse

  • Timing of British Election Study (BES) allows me to compare responses collected immediately prior to the murder to those collected immediately afterwards, by gender

Study 2: Research Design


  • Unexpected event during survey design: murder of UK MP Jo Cox in June 2016

  • Unexpected shock that concentrated association between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse

  • Timing of British Election Study (BES) allows me to compare responses collected immediately prior to the murder to those collected immediately afterwards, by gender

  • Regression of support for EU/support for immigration on interaction between pre-/post-murder and gender

Study 2: Research Design


  • Unexpected event during survey design: murder of UK MP Jo Cox in June 2016

  • Unexpected shock that concentrated association between anti-internationalism and right-wing extremism in public discourse

  • Timing of British Election Study (BES) allows me to compare responses collected immediately prior to the murder to those collected immediately afterwards, by gender

  • Regression of support for EU/support for immigration on interaction between pre-/post-murder and gender

  • Bandwidth: 6 days pre- and post-murder

Study 2: Results


Effect of murder on intent to vote Remain by gender


Study 2: Results


Effect of murder on support for EU by gender


Study 2: Results


Effect of murder on support for immigration (admit more immigrants) by gender


Study 2: Results


Effect of murder on support for immigration (immigrants enrich Britain’s cultural life) by gender


Study 2: Results


Effect of murder on support for immigration (immigration is good for Britain’s economy) by gender


Study 3: Research Design


Study 3: Research Design


  • Posited mechanism: sensitivity to social norms

Study 3: Research Design


  • Posited mechanism: sensitivity to social norms

  • Survey experiment with 1,393 respondents in France in August 2023

Study 3: Research Design


  • Posited mechanism: sensitivity to social norms

  • Survey experiment with 1,393 respondents in France in August 2023

  • Treatment: exposure to information about strength of social norm against racism

Study 3: Research Design


English translation of social norms treatment text:


More and more people in France consider racism to be unacceptable in today’s society. According to a recent survey, 93% of French people think denying a qualified Black or Maghrebin person a job is a serious offense. An overwhelming majority think the use of racial slurs should be condemned. Most people also think that it’s important to vigorously combat racism in France. Only 9% of French people believe some races are superior to others. Overall, France is becoming a country in which racism is increasingly seen as inappropriate.

Study 3: Research Design


  • Posited mechanism: sensitivity to social norms

  • Survey experiment with 1,393 respondents in France in August 2023

  • Treatment: exposure to information about strength of social norm against racism

  • Outcomes: support for immigration, EU, globalization, and free trade agreement

Study 3: Research Design


  • Posited mechanism: sensitivity to social norms

  • Survey experiment with 1,393 respondents in France in August 2023

  • Treatment: exposure to information about strength of social norm against racism

  • Outcomes: support for immigration, EU, globalization, and free trade agreement

  • Control variables: age, gender, education, income, left-right self-placement

Study 3: Results


Effect of social norms treatment on internationalism


Conclusion


  • Gender gap in support for international integration narrowing in Western Europe

Conclusion


  • Gender gap in support for international integration narrowing in Western Europe

  • Driven by closer linking of anti-internationalism with extremism

Conclusion


  • Gender gap in support for international integration narrowing in Western Europe

  • Driven by closer linking of anti-internationalism with extremism

  • Consciousness of social norms as potential mechanism

Implications


  • Discourse and social norms as important factors shaping attitudes toward internationalism

Implications


  • Discourse and social norms as important factors shaping attitudes toward internationalism

  • Importance of (changing) relationship between gender and the populist radical right

Implications

female_prr



Thank you!


nina.obermeier@kcl.ac.uk

Asymmetric Strength of Preferences on Internationalism

distribution of attitudes

Asymmetric Strength of Preferences on Internationalism

distribution of attitudes moving


Book Project: Results


Multilevel models: Support for European integration


  Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
Euroskepticism-extremism link 0.055*   0.027*  
  (0.003)   (0.004)  
Euroskepticism-extremism link\(_{rolling}\)   0.094*   0.049*
    (0.004)   (0.005)
Control variables No No Yes Yes
Observations 303,206 303,206 229,674 229,674
Countries 8 8 8 8
*p < 0.05

Study 1: Research Design


Newspapers by country


Newspaper 1 Newspaper 2
Austria Die Presse Der Standard
France Le Figaro L’humanité
Germany Die Welt Süddeutsche Zeitung
Ireland Irish Independent Irish Times
Italy Corriere della Sera La Stampa
The Netherlands Algemeen Dagblad De Telegraaf
Spain El Mundo El País
UK Daily Telegraph Guardian

Study 1: Research Design


Media analysis overview


Articles Hand-coded
articles		 Precision Recall Balanced
accuracy
rate		 F-score
Austria 118,393 530 0.96 0.89 0.50 0.93
France 77,893 775 0.94 0.92 0.70 0.93
Germany 196,624 685 0.97 0.90 0.74 0.93
Ireland 139,637 930 0.84 0.90 0.70 0.87
Italy 87,706 715 0.97 0.91 0.72 0.94
The Netherlands 53,184 903 0.97 0.91 0.69 0.94
Spain 164,161 474 0.98 0.92 0.70 0.95
UK 166,390 492 0.94 0.94 0.72 0.94

Study 2: Results

Results simple

Balance Tests: Study 2

balance tests

Placebo-in-Time Analysis: Study 2

placebo in time